The war on Iran has now entered its fourth month, the US/Iran war has far exceeded its promised four-day duration. Trump’s contradictory messaging signals a conflict with no clear plan — and with missile stocks already stretched, things are likely to only get worse.
Commentators and the media often refer to this conflict as the ‘War in Iran’, and indeed the horrors being meted out to ordinary people are in both Iran and also Lebanon, where 1/6 of the population has been displaced by Israel’s campaign of indiscriminate bombing of civilians. But there is no war between two opposing sides within Iran, the conflict consists of US, and sometimes Israeli, strikes on Iran with Iran responding by striking targets or US bases in neighbouring countries they regard as allies of the US or Israel. It appears more like a war on Iran than a war in Iran.
Whenever the fighting stops there is an uneasy ‘ceasefire’ underlined by the implicit threat of renewed targeting and killing of civilians and civilian infrastructure, not just military targets.
In other wars triggered by western intervention, the threat of widespread human suffering and devastation is often times enough to ‘strike a deal’ on terms that will satisfy the West or the global oil corporations/cartels. But not this time. This time Iran seems to have found the key to counter all of the usual threats and military pressure that have been thrown at them. Their own threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has already rattled petrol providers and the UK government, though ministers have yet to acknowledge their own role in the unfolding crisis. Oil is near $100 — up roughly 70% — with some forecasts warning of $150. But that isn’t the worst case scenario.
If the Strait stays closed and oil infrastructure keeps being destroyed, prices could reach several hundred dollars per barrel. The 1973 shock — caused by just 4-5 million barrels being taken off the market then — triggered seven years of inflation. This conflict has removed 20-25 million barrels, with infrastructure being actively bombed. There is also a real risk that refiners, unable to move or store output, are forced to shut down production — a process that can cause lasting damage, with no guarantee of full recovery.
The economic consequence is severe inflation. If oil trebles to ~$350, we could see 20-25% inflation. In a country with debt at 100% of GDP, interest rates would have to rise, hitting mortgage holders and working people hardest.
Yet Starmer, the Conservatives, and Farage have all rushed to back this war — competing on who can be more supportive of an increasingly unwinnable conflict. When the economic pain arrives, they will blame everyone but themselves.
Related to all the above points, it is probably reasonable to suggest that Netanyahu and Israel’s top military brass saw the attacks on Iran as a great opportunity to go after Hezbollah in Lebanon by creating a situation there similar to what they did in Gaza. Through mass terror they hoped to drive out enough of the Lebanese population, regardless of whether they are with Hezbollah or not, so as to create a kind of desolate buffer zone for Israel in southern Lebanon. The dead are just collateral damage to them.
Any progressive political group worth its name should be making five demands:
- This war will directly cause a cost of living crisis for ordinary people. Therefore people must not be price-gouged as a result of the elite’s recklessness.
- All UK support for the war should be immediately withdrawn.
- A serious ceasefire must be urgently pursued before further damage is done.
- We need to re-humanise the people of the Middle East who, other than Israelis are being dehumanised by the west. E.g. Yvette Cooper and others’ expressions of disbelief, as if to say “how dare Iran retaliate for being attacked”.
- A serious commitment to renewable energy is needed — to build the energy security that makes us resilient to exactly these type of shocks.
